Morning Mumble: GKP (The shorts are on) for this morning & Hummingbird (perhaps NYO wasn't so bad)

Whilst reviewing the situation in Iraq as al-Qaeda forces have seized Mosul and Tikrit, being far from an expert, it was noted that this is likely to be a significant push lower for GKP. GKP will suffer from volatility as traders beging playing on sentiment and a total lack of support for the stock. The problem GKP/Genel have is the news is very slow out of the reason which adds further 'risks'. I don't perceive it to be as bad as what has been made out and as such, will be looking to acquire Genel (not GKP) over the coming days/weeks. Surprisingly, I’m long…spring madness in the Summer!

The reaction to the Victoria Oil & Gas announcement was unsurprising really. Genset Connections and Thermal Update which albeit positive leaves me wondering if VOG should change the management. I’m fully aware I say this a lot, but there appears to be a theme. Better still why don’t VOG get someone in to manage the IR; it’s an issue that needs addressing! I could spare one day a week and show them how its done! I hold VOG but strangely, I have this sensational feeling its going to always be lack lustre.

With the miners taking a kicking because of the outlook for commodities its no surprise the favourites are out of favour today! I suspect the markets are likely to price the doom and gloom well before the realities dawn and a realisation that “things” aren’t so bad as the price. The numpty trade for today was Rio Short from the off, close by 11, if  not before!

What are Hummingbird Resources (HHUM) playing at? Yes I’m aware issuing shares for an asset that cost $45M 5 years ago and has had near £60M spent on it may be viable, but ‘word has it’ that no man or dog wanted to touch the Yanfolila Project. I had to stop myself typing asset, yes the metrics look encouraging, the grades encouraging but surely Hummingbird should perhaps focus on their “other asset.” The Dugbe 1 Project Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is currently on-going. Proposed Acquisition of all of Gold Fields' Gold Assets in Mali (Yanfolila Project) Of course this may have material benefits such as “potential” funding for Dugbe, but one cannot help but wonder if its getting to thin on the ground.

For those following Anglo Pacific (APF) you’ll note the overlap with Hummingbird (HUM) for a 2% net smelter royalty. One will await the DFS soon before any excitement for APF can be shown, it has to be said that for a royalty company some ‘acquisitions’ are questionable, not forgetting their most recent Maracás Vanadium Project royalty. One will be hoping for a ramp up at Dugbe to 250-300K ounces per annum to make a decent return for APF. Likely? We won’t have to wait long to find out!

Finally, parties are recommending that people buy Kefi? Surely sensible investors already hold Kefi if they’re holding Nyota? If that’s the case expecting a price drop on Kefi post any issue of shares to holders in NYO! For one I’ll be tipping out! I don’t rate gold stocks on the whole…Kefi, yes has some shrewd management but alas, if gold exposure should be physical. Placing after placing puts a cap on things!

It is the weekend for me in a few, then I must make preparation for a jolly next week, having decided to take up an Ascot invite I wasn’t so excited about. Having been persuaded with the offer of transport and lodgings, one will evaluate the hospitality in the fullness of time..with my horse racing success limited to picking failures all tips appreciated!

Atb Fraser

N.B in the time it has taken to type this and multitask GKP positions are closed…