Morning Mumble: This Month China On Russia Off = NIckel Wins & Diamonds where's the Dividend!

Well it appears over in Asia the markets they were aligning themselves with China "now" (read as currently) not being as bad as people thought, so in they popped on Chinese stocks, dropped Russian/Ukrainian exposed (belatedly) and ran for metals. Iron Ore even got some support, despite the obvious happening in the Steel Mills. It seems a prudent time not to bail out the Mills on the basis that it will 'naturally' remove any slack and higher polluting operators. 

Nickel is now in speculation mode with momentum over the weekend pushing the price near 5% higher, and benefiting the likes of Vale, Glencore, BLT and even ANGLO will benefit, (Vale being in number two spot to Norilsk Nickel). I've elected to exclude Norilsk on a temporary basis due to the Russian / Ukraine debacle, not just because of the booing at the Eurovision!) The world has gone mad, but I dare say that's a conversation for a differently focussed blog on 'Eurovision' winners. 

Friday enabled me to have a good session with Dr Livingstone (Ian with no Doctorate) about his recent antics and his alleged return to blogging? I've heard it all when one needs a week "to catch up". Alas, Saturday was recovering due to the excesses of the night before, whereby Livingstone did not surface till near 4pm, due to a slight bit of 'jet lag' strangely sounding like a hangover.

What is interesting is BNP have caught on that the basics of supply and demand I discussed some 5-6 months back (and more) in respect of Nickel are now occurring. Often parties are so focus on one they miss the other, which was the reasoning for building various positions in Nickel in the first place. BNP noting that supply is often a greater driver than demand, albeit with demand positive and supply down there's only one train until news of Indonesia 'going' soft in the interim. Surely miners can't just stockpile for 2+years in Indonesia and will have to mothball?

The momentum traders and speculators are finally in Nickel over the weekend with no reason for the run bar speculation. The price rises up to Friday were purely physical demand, which would have historically dropped off a little. Nickel is now a hoarders dream, stash, go long on it and hold it dear, the tighter held, the quicker $30k/t will be made, after running through the 20k/t mark, or 9$/lb for those in older monies. Its 'almost' guaranteed Nickel will test $13'lb and potentially $15'lbs, with some volatility along the way (common-sense). The move on the weekend added $100M to Glen's profits going forward over the weekend on top of the recent gains. One assumes they aren't exposed to too many forward sales agreements between $7-8/lb?

Already one company is running with the bulls, QCG Resources are rushing to the market with an IPO based on their Avebury mine in Tasmania (NIckel). Personally, why China's Minmetals subsidary MMG selling Avebury it beggars belief but kudos to QCG, the stock, if "IPO'd quick enough" should bode well in the current climate. One couldn't have time it better with Indonesia's ban, the Russian issue and demand pushing any likely surplus in the market back to 2018 at the earliest it bodes well for prices and trades. Long Long Long!

Gem Diamonds came out today with a very positive Interim Management Statement. With cashflow and cash at bank improving mainly thanks to the Letšeng dividend. Sadly the market was expecting the magic word 'dividend' which never came forth in the IMS. My figures show GEMD could have afforded 5.5pence a share dividend. This would have certainly provided some "motivation" for the stock. In addition to the likely benefits of Ghaghoo  coming online as they've 'finally' hit Kimberlite in Botswana. One awaits the "joyous news on production ramping up H2 of this year (subject to the Cameroon sand playing ball with their access pit). Ghaghoo’s progress and ‘being on schedule’ was further validation of rewarding holders with a 5p divi! Alas, perhaps the Management will do a ‘special’ announcement.

I have been short on Anglo Pacfic (APF) despite being favoured by an analyst I have respect for who's rather shrewd/open. Having been short since November the company’s Interim management statement  is starting to make me thing the bottom is near. The dividend should provide some assistance, but their over positiveness on Coal made me to think negatively on the company for quite some time, so with closing positions I will bide my time before/if going long. 

Being in the monies on LGO, Leni Oil & Gas, I'm not sure what the additional noise in the RNS today was about bar a drilling update. However one chap has a conspiracy theory that its to get as many announcements out to push the legal debacle out of sight (really?!? Surely not!) The announcement is a positive, but I reiterate I do not hold this stock because of management only the asset(s). LGO's Production and Drilling Update Trinidad. 

Finally, the money printing is going on for the shorters on Blur, the company were so kind to the satans of the stockmarket (us shorters), to give us advance warning to go short. On the 17th April 2014, in Blur's trading update and Notice of Results announced that a "more conservative and prudent approach to revenue recognition." What took the market so long between then and today's announcement for investors to realise, trading update to realise cash would be required and more importantly recognised profits would be lower? Good luck to Singer N+1 in raising the cash required. Convertible loans well in the money? Discounted (even more so) placing? One will await the news before shutting any position..kleenex may be required for those long!...WANDisco continuing its fall, D, you were merely 6 months too early.

Atb Fraser