There is an apology for not posting yesterday, albeit I did feel obligated this is secondary to trading and as such, sidelined when very busy. To the title, as discussed when parties do not pay their obligations they should not be entitled to the proceeds. For those lottery enthusiasts, you'll know the difference between paying your "share" or not, if its the latter you are not in the game.
The news and content of the legal action between MOG and LGO is limited but there is a little birdie fishing away in the background to give an in-depth perspective. Perhaps had LGO paid their liabilities they would have been entitled to information? Did they pay their liabilities? Rather than trade them off and relinquish their share? If I do not pay for something I do not expect to be entitled to it. From the limited information I have read, this appears to be the case, but I am not in position of the full facts.
There was some request about whether I am personally short on Iofina Plc (IOF). Yes, who wouldn't be? I referred to this in Markets Live near 2 months ago about support and resistance with clear cut pricing of my actions. Well who wouldn't had it held seventy five pence but the support had gone so deserved a decent addition to the falls. The company on the market update mentioned nothing about sales. Iofina does not need to be waiting for an improvement in prices contrary to some commentary, it actually needs to be selling the product in larger numbers per se.
Some very interesting news from Oilers that I shall best leave to a more sensible thought process...suffice to say who's selling their Kurdistan assets to a well cashed up company? Any ideas? One item that surprised me with the gossip on Oilers was Xcite, one would have thought the "possibilities" in a potential agreement would add more value. Suffice to say its hard to predict the bottom at the moment...
Leggie, Phorm.....I wanted to do a lengthy piece until I realised Tom W had, for which covers a lot of the items. What I will say is, and as an assurance to Phorm, the fundraiser meets the criteria for a huge short...I look forward to the news with glee.
Well there's some press over London Mining, I have always rated the company. The company, unlike a lot has plenty going for it and without a significant 30% tank in Iron Ore Prices will expand nicely and do well. That is a risk and is being over-priced by the market. This company has very good management, some lower quality ores and moisture for me is an issue. I have purely been short on London Mining because of the Iron Ore price, no other reason. Knife catching? only if you believe what most of the press write whom like drama to their writing. Better still, they are incapable of working through a decent "picture" of a company. Iron Ore down London Mining is impaired, but not out.
Finally, Coking Coal, the price falls are not good for sector or Anglo American, with platinum strike issues and now coking coal prices under pressure the outlook does not look good. Indian Term prices are under pressure, with the Japanese driving harder for subs $120 a tonne in comparison to the Indian $125-130. For those wondering what it means to them, well very little unless they're holding New World Resources...the darling of debt and restructuring. Would you put more money into a company with margins already under pressure has been stressed further. Obviously, if one wears there rose tinted spectacles you could argue the cycle is at the bottom, it should increase. Lets face it with surplus coming to the steel markets one wouldn't be wise to expect an increase in Coke prices (non-columbian) without a dramatic change in Policy in China.
All the best, Fraser
Finally, Coking Coal, the price falls are not good for sector or Anglo American, with platinum strike issues and now coking coal prices under pressure the outlook does not look good. Indian Term prices are under pressure, with the Japanese driving harder for subs $120 a tonne in comparison to the Indian $125-130. For those wondering what it means to them, well very little unless they're holding New World Resources...the darling of debt and restructuring. Would you put more money into a company with margins already under pressure has been stressed further. Obviously, if one wears there rose tinted spectacles you could argue the cycle is at the bottom, it should increase. Lets face it with surplus coming to the steel markets one wouldn't be wise to expect an increase in Coke prices (non-columbian) without a dramatic change in Policy in China.
All the best, Fraser
Metallurgical
Coal Benchmark Falls to Six-Year Low, Doyle Says, albeit mirrored with Iron Ore and Steel Prices it wasn't hard to predict #mostobvioustradeof2014
Metro Baltic settlement with directors- http://www.investegate.co.uk/metro-baltic-horizon--met-/rns/settlement-agreement/201403281013244487D/
ReplyDeleteCame two weeks before i had funds to get in! Well done to you guys holding. Not a huge figure relative to claim size but to market cap its having a promising impact on the SP.
Advisors still been pursued.
Regards
Oli
Oli
ReplyDeleteYes- been out and about (as a long I can move about without watching/trading on most days, with fingers only slightly crossed) and I see the clean settlement with the directors, which is v positive given the mkt is valuing at well below cash up until now (12p- £3m mkt cap v cash of around £4.5m according to my calcs). The extra £2.5m now plus the E6m claim against Ernst and Young (may be settled at around £1m, we will see) means there is still something to go after here imo anyway.
Fraser- IOF- I agree they need to prove they can sell iodine to the big producers- that's the big flaw in their plan for me, execution of that plant roll out was always v optimistic over their timescales in my view- they haven't mentioned cash position, apart from the scaleback and review helping to preserve this position. The new guy has the skills to move the water project forward, and this could be v lucrative given the frackers needs here.
Cheers. The Leggie
Re: IOF The fact that they have not given any production figures for while does not bode well for the results. I suspect because of the bad weather and "start-up issues" the volume will not be as expected. Selling to big users requires a stable and ongoing production otherwise there will be no interested.
DeleteRegards
Calculus
Calculus, totally agree with you.
DeleteI suspect there will be some surprises in results however IOF need to learn about the market expectation. I have been significantly short on the basis the company needed a positive update rather than a plant update. Having worked with a couple of companies, I've been able to at least make them aware of market expectations. True value always presents itself with open disclosure.
Hope your weekend started well....
Atb Fraser
Squeeze is done on MET now Leggie! Amazing how it unfolds:-) Atb Fraser
ReplyDeleteFraser
ReplyDeleteI like your Erratic Market Coverage tagline- that could be taken two ways- I must say it would be cruel to say your market coverage is erratic- perhaps Ian would disagree here :-))
Re MET- Ive been fixing an old roller at the cricket ground so I didn't follow the action but it looks like the buyers overwhelmed the poor old market mkrs (or intermediaries) for an hour or two- I slotted a third of my stake at 20.55p but I calculate those holding until liquidation could well get over 25p here so I will sit on the rest. The only concern re the RNS is that it didn't mention what the legals o/s here are or if the £2.5m the company getting is net of this aspect. I think they have been paying their way re legal fees, so I cant see too much negative here but it would be nice to get a slightly more precise RNS. Ernst and Young next in line... load both barrels for them :-))
Cheers. The Leggie
Cheers leggie, quiet one for me after a massive night last night.
ReplyDeleteI'm enjoying my commentary write of wrong, who afterall would pay me to do this (Chuckles like Muttley).
Ian is too busy fraternising with the natives to bother with a 'blog' albeit he has been doing very well! haha
Met, I think you were better than I but I was focused on the RSL long, not normal to catch it near the bottom and some very inaccurate reporting by 'a certain' paper.
All the best, Fraser