Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Any old iron (continuing on from 19th February 2014) - Defaults contributing to Defaults


It would appear there were a few trades that caused the tank on Iron Ore overnight. Without adding the fear factor, this was one of the most predictable trades of 2014 and I suspect will the all-time trade of 2014 for those whom had been stacking positions for near 3 months.

So the consequences mean that the larger producer positions may be better hedged, but the Chinese are notoriously bad traders in my opinion, utilising childish methods of double or quits. The important element will be how this depreciation will impact on other types of credit available as fear sets in. This for me was a strong signal to close longs on Nickel.

The reason for the tank in my view is the forced liquidation by a couple of larger Chinese traders, its also common-knowledge that their are one or two steel mills on the brink of default and this has been exacerbated by the price drop. A very reliable piece of gossip that one of our well known 'big boy' traders is out of profit (large loss) due to the tank, I'd love to know how someone can lose near $1B on this...perhaps someone can educate me because I'm certainly too retarded to think how one could ever become over-exposed. 

With so much leveraged off so little in the Iron Ore market (especially in China) this house of cards could be very significant in terms of the global supply and demand. Obviously analysts will say they knew it was coming, but their previous commentary that caused splinters for being on the fence so long suggests they were hedging their bets. 

Personally, new to this area of trading (but not without beta testing my trades for 18 months) I cannot predict the supply and demand variables for the short-term. Personally, I don't think most can, as the defaults are merely rumour at the moment, but also in part validated by the Iron Ore Tank *(scuse the pun). 

As a side thought, my targets for 2014-2015 were met overnight, normally as a price goes in my favour and gets closer to my target price I lock profits in. It moved so fast, I was unable to but closed my positions at circa 105.50. Reece, you may want to consider, if you haven't already looking at locking in some of your profits from AAL and any other miners you have positions. My closing of positions is for two reasons: unpredictably now and all positions hitting my maximum position target to derisk/close.

All the best, Fraser


Having read the "Decision on Jurisdiction" in full: why...

Having read the "Decision on Jurisidiction" in full: why would parties invest in Indonesia after read the Indonesian Gov+t's arguments. 

Now this is a little verbose and I'm not known for Brevity, for those followers not interested I would recommend ignoring this post in its entirety. Parties should ideally read all the document, I've made a few notes (thoughts) specifically relating to the analysis and continuing issues. You may have downloaded the document already but for those parties looking to take the risk, common sense prevails that the Jurisdictional Decision is the most useful document so far. 
Items to Read Page 30 V Analysis

Very interesting item 87 – which clearly upholds Churchill Planet’s rights to protection under the BIT agreement. Reaffirmed by Item 88. As per below:

 87. Article 25(1) of the ICSID Convention reads in relevant part as follows: The jurisdiction of the Centre shall extend to any legal dispute arising directly out of an investment, between a Contracting State […] and a national of another Contracting State, which the parties to the dispute consent in writing to submit to the Centre. When the parties have given their consent, no party may withdraw its consent unilaterally.

88. Accordingly, Article 25 of the ICSID Convention provides for four requirements for jurisdiction. There must be (i) a dispute between a Contracting State and a national of another Contracting State,100 (ii) of a legal nature, (iii) arising directly from an investment,101 and (iv) the Parties must have consented in writing to arbitration.

More importantly:
90. Article XI of the BIT reads in relevant part as follows:

1. In the event of a dispute between a Party and an investor of the other party relating to an investment, the parties to the dispute shall initially seek to resolve the dispute by consultations and negotiations.
2. In the event that such a dispute cannot be settled through consultations and negotiations, the investor in question may submit the dispute, for settlement:
a. in accordance with the laws and regulations of the Party which has admitted the investment to the competent judicial or administrative bodies of that Party; or
b. to the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (“the Centre”) for the application of the conciliation or arbitration procedures provided by the 1965 Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States (“the Convention”).
[…]
4. Where a dispute is referred to the Centre pursuant to sub-paragraph 2(b):
a. where that action is taken by an investor of one Party, the other Party shall consent in writing to the submission of the dispute to the Centre within forty-five days of receiving such a request from the investor; or
b. if the parties to the dispute cannot agree whether conciliation or arbitration is the more appropriate procedure, the investor affected shall have the right to choose.
91. It is undisputed that Indonesia is a Contracting Party of the BIT, and that Planet qualifies as an “investor of the other party”, i.e. of Australia. It is equally undisputed that the dispute is “relating to an investment”.

Page 29 in its entirety covering consent and the assumption of ‘non-consent’ and has to be established on evidence.

Item 116 about Indonesia’s viewpoint – warped and mislead.

Items 203-208 & continuing to 215 where they focus on the small print and deliberate manipulation of the terms to avoid “giving or expressing” consent from the President in my view.

Amazing summary really, but more importantly outlines the risks associated with ‘approvals’ and also the licenses approved for the conduct of 'which' type of business. Indonesia’s argument about conducting “mining” activities is a mere distraction. The balance is that Churchill and Planet acted properly and were approved to invest in the associated structures that Indonesia now contends as illegal operations and fabrication of facts / documentation.

This case, when read in full just on the jurisdictional issues, clearly shows Indonesia’s contempt just for “consent” to International Arbitration nevermind the reluctance to be willing to comply with the process.  Exciting times ahead in my view, nevermind the potential, but not without acknowledging the “claims” made by Indonesia that hint at their defence for why they should not be held accountable or made to comply with the Indonesian/Australian BIT agreement. These facts, I would invite people to consider fully rather than make assumptions of a clear ‘cut’ victory.

One thing outstanding, and as mentioned previously is Churchills need for finance, the Directors have already shown a willingness to conserve cash by the payment of renumeration/salaries via share issue. This however won’t pay lawyers unless a funding agreement whether direct or via third party funder is agreed. Admittedly Churchill have so far been prudent in their fundraisers, it doesn’t not guarantee the future equity placings will also be at a premium.

All the best, Fraser

Monday, 10 March 2014

Chinese Iron Ore & the Glut of over capacity...price sunk to $114 (circa)

Australian Iron Ore looks to be dropping, and is likely to depreciate to the $97-105 mark. As parties with common-sense know this growth cannot continue, it also shows that the China Iron and Steel Association commentary shows that growth is limited now. This also contradicts the assertions and targets made by the Chinese Government for Growth. 

More importantly, and far from commented on by the press is the fact the Iron Ore Price has deteriorated near 3% since Rio met up with China Steel Industry Association executive VP Zhu Jimin. The significance is the imbalance of supply and demand that has long been commented on and was specifically discussed by Rio & Zhu Jimin. The main reason for the price distortion is the "mismanagement" of positions by importers/buyers. They appear "now" to have been given basics training about the supply/demand variables and how if there's a surplus this means a reduction in price. Alas better late than never, but credit days appear to increase marginally its certainly implying a stress in the sector. 

What could be interesting is China's now apparent belief that anything 'private companies' should cover its own risks (See Solar Bond Default). By the main producers in China maintaining their production guidance the private players will be put under stress by price depreciating and lower margins; benefiting (ironic) the larger and/or Government back companies. The knock on for Japan doesn't look positive either. 

So with steel production "not yet being curbed" as it should be with an over capacity of around 140M tonnes this year, Iron Ore is going to come under further stress. The consensus for demand is between 650-700Mts of steel with production looking more like 800-850Mts.

Anyone for a margin call? More than likely...without a huge knowledge of the steel sector, it’s implied by the oversupply and glut in the market, that it’s not unreasonable to expect 3.5 to 5 years of steel market conditions toughening significantly. Unlike most industries, consolidation in the industry would only lead to greater losses as the costs are weighted towards the production, synergies won't be massive. Survival of the fittest here we come...

All the best Fraser

Edit: It would appear China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has also met BHP executives on 27th February 2014 & Rio on 05th March 2014

Friday, 7 March 2014

Is it really news that Solar panel maker Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology has defaulted on its bonds? (Soap Box on)



http://www.chaorisolar.com/upload/2013030601595268.pdf The actual statement about corporate bonds, please use a decent translator service. This was made on the 1st March, but they have offered $400K on that $1b debt, I hope you sense my humour there!

It comes as no surprise as I had discussed earlier about the Chinese Development Grants, and how this creates a false market especially in the Solar Panel industry. The timing of the notices and default appears to have been made for the Company to be high profile to ‘attempt’ to force the Chinese Authorities to ‘bail out’ the Solar manufacturer and avoid a default. Afterall, look at the share ownership structure, how many more companies in China underpinned by various Chinese Authority / Government Department’s and/or Companies nevermind the fact is been suspended for how long?

If people look back at the history, its no surprise ‘Directors’ (loose term) were resigning for some time prior to the news. Nevermind the fact the company was suspended for how long? Yet alleged decent Journalists are now suggesting it’s “sudden news” that has come to light. This company, like many Solar companies has been unable to meet it’s interest payments on bonds for a long time despite the solar industry prices picking up from an all-time lows. It’s not something new, this didn’t materialise as a result of other issues, they merely didn’t generate enough cashflow/profit from sales to maintain the payment of interest (& the shrewd parties (myself included) realised this when shorting the stocks of those listed outside China. In essence, without a qualification in accounting, but an understanding of accounts on a basic level, I dare say the liabilities were known about prior to the 1st March when the original announcement was made by some 6 months, but as it wasn’t due till a certain date the company elected to wait and the bonds were a bet on improving markets that would never materialise.

So what next, the positive is, without some form of protectionary restructuring, it will be very positive for the Solar Industry if Market forces are allowed to run their natural course. Albeit I wonder what the Chinese Government will do, it’s a small default but is there a ‘scapegoat’ here where other manufacturers perhaps have received “grants” that enabled them to restructure. A timely lesson, especially as the Chinese Railway is seeking to raise significant finance to underpin expansion and improvements. The Consolidation mandate has been informally issued by the lack of the ‘emergency government assistance.’

Amazingly, more press has been generated from this default than the other defaults by Solar Companies “offshore” which have created larger losses and greater debts, but “been able to consolidate” due to Governmental Assistance. The Communist theory of “state ownership” is being contradicted by the bail outs of capitalistic entities, and more importantly the distorted accounts that appear to make a Company profitable when it has received development or government funding from various agencies. 


I would however like to thank a certain person for adapting my previous commentary including typo on the Solar ‘Crisis’ and putting it out as their own, you will be hearing from me!

China, either has to embrace market forces or adapt a different culture whereby they’re clearly allowing second tier of lending which is akin to a 1990’s Window Salesman’s explaining if you don’t buy now the opportunity is gone tomorrow…

Atb Fraser

Thursday, 6 March 2014

Faroe Petroleum: (Buy) post Today's Oil & Gas discovery at the Pil well in the Norwegian Sea 06th March 2014


(Edited: to read properly) I'll cover Ian's discussions about why I'm short on Rurelec in due course. More importantly, FPM (the company) is turning a corner with the reserves based lending facilities which was already known, as highlighted in the Faroe Petroleum PLC (FPM) Interim Results for Period up to 30th June 2013.

I'm not giving any waffle around the company turning round as it's been dogged for awhile with various issues including expectations on Novus. From a trading perspective I won't be acquiring all in one go, I don't see the point personally, but with cash and funding available, PIL might just move up the schedule over the coming months, I'd wait till today's news is out the way before appraising any entry points, its positive news, but likewise the sentiment has been mixed for a number of months. 

Regarding Rurelec, having kept some equity in the company, it was obvious the sentiment was far from positive in the short-term and the delayed listing with Santiago has not helped matters. I'm amazed other exchanges have not had issue with AIM's regulation but that's for another time. As such, 3 solid points on Rurelec short, returned what was expected in terms of the profits from the positive award. For the first time in a long-time I'm opting to hold Rurelec longer-term with what I have left in the company. Ian is not aware that he will also be doing the same, but he perhaps should read his emails!

From a Ukraine perspective I am surprised that the market hasn't been more volatile, the obvious trades in terms of longing- Platinum and Palladium assisted with South Africa's strikes and Russian's shenanigans. 
Kazakhmys and Glencore could have some issues if there's any trade embargo/sanctions placed on Russia, Zinc/Copper, certainly at least some volatility. Kazakhmys acting very predictably as the short interests get torched, it's a prime of example of a squeeze!
Off tomorrow evening for a weekend away with some friends, hope everyone enjoys the UK Sunshine!
Atb Fraser






Tuesday, 4 March 2014

Oxus Plc: Conversion of CLNs and Issue of Equity (Sturgeon Central Asia Balanced Fund Ltd)


What is surprising about the CLN (Convertible Loan Notes) is, even allowing for interest its around the figure of the lower end figures for the award. So one assumes parties believe the value is higher? Irrespective of my view its certainly a validation of the prospects of the Oxus Plc case in addition to the Calunius funding, which has a success rate in the higher 90%'s which isn't to be sniffed out.

Unless of course the conversions and equity is going to be placed short? Which I doubt...but that is a risk admittedly. 

Atb Fraser

(Leggie apologies for my slowness as this comes second to trading! :-) )

Holdings RNS's in due course.

Sunday, 2 March 2014

Currently working on the Asset Bubble Madness that is missed by Institutions...

I'm currently working on the "Asset Bubble Madness" that is missed by Institutions...the driver will be their panic. Having had an excellent weekend with what Leggie would call Shorters Anonymous, I have come to the conclusions for what I believe will happen over the next 6-12 months. Yes there are a global number of shorters that enjoy their trade and get together to drink (mainly that) and debate...I suspect it'll revolve round Iron Ore and other contributors. The low cost producers will always be ok, "its the others that won't be."

Hopefully over the next week I'll update this page about the impact of 'such asset bubbles' and what they meant to investors.

All the best (ATB) Fraser