Evening Bolt On: Food Glorious Food

Hopefully tomorrow the glut in cheap food and their surpluses...Feed Grains, Soya and Milk (Chinese over supply limited demand). This depends on a number of factors but may have to be put back to another day (read as never judging by past performance). There's likely to be some global intolerance both for gluten and lactose (poor I know). 

Oil's bounced with par trading between Brent and WTI, the game of chess is afoot. One would be wise to consider longs as higher risk but with significant reward if one catches the knife correctly. Significant interest in 2015 December Brent Futures circa $57.20/bbl. Floating storage? Oil to Asia, components and exports to America and Europe whilst the routes are cheap.

Today it was rude not to sell Bowleven (BLVN) and Greggs (GRG), whether this over time proves right, its something that I don't look over my shoulder at but will review. Having ridden the wave and made an paltry profit on the long BLVN trades I have little patience for it in the current climate. Greggs's only justification is on the news...

We should spend a moment in silence for those copper traders in denials about the price with limited time left before their positions need a resolution! A key price was hit today.

Very long day, Atb Fraser

Evening Bolt On: Guess what...Oil. Stating the obvious thanks GS.

Futures are not deterring the floating storage with the bets looking more than likely for Sept/Oct 2015 stability (subject to change). Brent Crude $47.37/bbl.-down $2.74  -5.47%. 

We had the obvious opinion from Goldman Sachs (GS) being published (Reuters) & $40 Oil? That’s How Low Goldman Sachs Says It Needs to Go (Bloomberg). With GS cutting their three-month forecasts for Brent to $42 a barrel from $80 (better late than never) For the U.S. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) contract to $41 from $70 a barrel. GS cut their 2015 Brent forecast to $50.40 a barrel from $83.75 and U.S. WTI crude to $47.15 a barrel from $73.75. 

For the traders and lenders there will be many a late nights running over the reserves based lending (RBL) facilities and breaches of covenant and/or default. This has the obvious possibility to remove a significant surplus off the market. 

Over to the brokers to sell these "value" fundraisers. With so many firms leveraged the risks of default and fundraisers are now imminent. Assuming anyone wants to take the risks other than giving the assets back to the bank in the current cycle. Over to the big boys for some cheap production to be picked up.

Russian defaults should surely be stacking up...along with Kenya/Nigeria.

Atb Fraser