Weekend: Tous pour un, un pour tous + A Fad of Things, Property, Retail and Wines!

There's no good in the actions of those in France! So it’s limited to - Evening, rather than ‘good evening’.

Tous pour un, un pour tous! Sympathy and thoughts go out to the families and friends of all those affected by the senselessness that occurred in France.

We are losing count of the profits warnings and revisions in guidance on a global scale – especially industrials. The trade this week was Rolls Royce (RR.) where the interimmanagement statement echoed the woes of Fenner et al. A general theme about earnings and outlook that will continue for the foreseeable future (over to Caterpillar after the JCB layoffs).

Themes from the previous week continued all the way through and are now the reality (Weekend's EMC - NFP & Weaklings) - deflation is hurting earnings and causing a nervousness in guidance. Those companies that are leveraged whether in oil & gas, manufacturing, services and support are all starting to acknowledge "the world's largest customer(s) are changing / have changed their appetite." 

In the US the likes of FitBit (NYSE: FIT) is beating the trend (currently), with what we here consider a gimmick formulae. FitBit need to overcome a common theme of fad utilisation with their products, which are often used for not much longer than that of a gym membership - circa 3 months (EMC research) there after being destined for a drawer. 

We have to acknowledge one reader’s wife’s commitment to use her for an eternity! Although if you’re stuck for a present for your beloved, you too can do your thing for wearable revenues! Wearable tech undoubtedly has mileage across the sector, but with competition, what’s in it for shareholders? Those reliant on one arm (scuse the pun) of the sporting sector are limited in their traction, where they’ll have to compete with the likes of Nike+ etc.…

For some investors, they have been rewarded with the Fossilacquisition of MisFit, but for others it’ll be a cycle of confetti issuance for equityraisings a la FitBit.  There is perhaps a hope of being acquired rather than having to justify being a viable business that warrants a decent valuation.

FitBit’s placing (and discount) was expected and the price is understandable when one has a quick look at the accounts. Innovation costs money, especially where there’s a theme of a “fad of things” emerging. The EMC considers FitBit to have an over reliance on novelty and gimmickry that drives sales – Christmas is upon them where they should do well. We will not comment on Fitbit inventories levels, receivables and trade payables, they appear to be insignificant to investors – but not those that bought into the equity issue.

Rocket Internet (ETR: RKET) call these “proven winners” (Rocket Internet terminology from the lengthy CMD) - but we have HelloFreshbeing withdrawn (FT). Bringing into question the valuation of Rocket’s “proven winners.” The market is getting wise to the actions of companies, especially those that issue discount vouchers like confetti pre-IPO.

Within the commodities space we have the Icahn’tseries of Freeport McMorran (NYSE: FCX). When a major investor tries to bet against the global outlook; one should pay attention. The market is changing, oil will stabilise as will copper, but significant bets against a global trend are often unwise (in the short-to-mid-term). We note the two brokers that criticised our approach - being 40% down from our commentary, are we not validated?

We also have trends occurring in retail space in the US that have yet to present themselves fully in the UK - albeit consumption has been brought forward by Help to Buy (H2B) scheme. This is propelling the results of the house builders, but with a muted response from the market Inc. BarrattDevelopments Trading Update (BDEV), RedrowAGM Statement (RDW) and GreatPortland Estates (GPOR). This Tuesday (17 Nov 2015) sees British land (BLND) reporting half yearly, a stalwart that shouldn’t be ignored.

US retail space are admitting the need to entice consumers with discounts and showing the price-sensitivity in the market – evidenced in part by Macy’s and NordstromQ3 Results. Big ticket items impacting on retail - Walmart, Nordstrom and Macy's all showing a similar story. By big ticket, we mean houses, cars, home refurbishments and extensions, electronics and smartphones – yes this is a retail driver in China as well (missed by most!) and will have consequences to this.

In the UK these themes have already hit the likes of Kingfisher, Travis Perkins, Speedy Hire, HSS and as a wildcard Halfords. Two companies in that list haven't helped themselves either (Speedy & HSS), but we'll save that for those accounting gurus with more time on their hands. 

Retail will also be hurt by the rise in student debt, where there is a suspicion that student registrations rose because of the recession rather than a yearning trend to improve oneself. The student leverage and consequences mean that a few generations are going to skip a housing purchase until later in life.

If society loads a student with debt the consequences will impact an entire generation, especially where wage growth is slowing or deflationary. Student Fees on the increase, student loans on the increase…remind yourself of the purpose of education?

Pearsons (PSON) education is showing the realities of the market place. See PSON interimresults graph for a trade plan courtesy of Bloomberg ™® and one shrewd trader.

We have Majestic Wines (MJW) reporting tomorrow - with the trading update from Conviviality(CVR) – have they cannibalised MJW’s margins? Majestics have erased their economic moat of six bottle minimum purchase – we will start to see the implications of this tomorrow and average spend.

Some poignant questions for Majestic Wine’s – if the removal of the 6 bottle limit didn’t impact on revenue, will it maintain them longer-term? What is the customer acquisition costs of Naked Wines? Are Majestic’s in a declining space where novelty type drinks are on the increase? We have insufficient data for a conviction trade. We won’t comment on their limited response from IR either and will maybe comment further tomorrow. …

Atb Fraser

In trading or taking a view, the impact of being laid off, made redundant or hurt by the actions of some idiots may appear to be ignored. These are never forgotten, including the implications for the families. 

Morning Mumble (belated): Is VW Americas new BP? Just in the US? Perhaps with coffee? + JCB, KAZ & BLT.

Good Morning Evening,

Apologies it’s been manic!

The events unfolding for VW (Volkswagen AG) and the automotive industry as a whole were a complete surprise. The share price decline in comparison to the GM debacle was starting to look overdone until the outing of a further 10.5 million cars with emission issues. Prudence suggests it’s wise to consider the unquantifiable liabilities (irrespective of current provisions).

As per most corporate scandals of late, VW’s algorithmic adjustments were initially implied as being limited to circa 480K cars. Now the very size of the admission raises questions about the dividend and valuations become wide-ranging. Luckily for VW, the Suzuki monies will come in handy and are possibly not factored in by the market.

VW has not been absent of corporate issues before, with the Porsche hedge fund bonfire, union payments/benefits and now false emissions data. It would be a very hard/foolish to catalogue all the actions and conclude, after the fact, that VW was a veritable investment basket case. To do so, would question the very foundations of any investment. Save of course for the macro implications upon a company as large as VW i.e. China / Global auto markets.

With the range of fines and compensation ranges being so vast, some sensibility is needed. If one was to assume the issues of GM and subsequent cost implications, plus those of Toyota with their airbag denial had a similar gravity. Then one can at least ascertain those as being the minimum liabilities that VW can expect to pay. Admittedly, VW have come out with a $6.5B figure to side aside for potential liabilities or circa $590 a unit. Really?

VW and the market have some direction due to GM’s misfortune and currently (subject to further news) suggests it’s likely to cost them less than the worst case scenario bandied around.  The media have not so far implicated VW in any deaths or accidents as a result of their actions.  Having been short across the sector for car manufacturers on the back of the Chinese data, yesterday’s news was totally unexpected (perhaps a lesson...).

The corporates appear to have played right into the hands of the ever tightening grip of the enforcements agencies. Such Agencies/Government Depts. have gained as a result of the poor conduct of corporate entities (banks and autos), with severe financial penalties being imposed since the financial crisis (08/09). So one cannot discount too much of the U$D 37,500 per vehicle penalty, that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could impose for breaches to Clean Air Act.

Conveniently, America has an option to impose a higher penalty on VW due to the differences in laws governing the actions of VW, GM, Hyundai and Toyota. VW is at risk of being a pawn for the protectionism of America auto manufacturers.

The commentary about the reputation damage often ignores brand loyalty. It shows the limited understanding by some commentators of a sector and brands. A quick look at GM’s market share demonstrates they have maintained near to the level when the ignition faults were uncovered. Albeit, GM lost their key position of circa 25% market share back 2005 and have never recovered since. This was in part due to the diversity of the product offerings in America and quality.

The read across to other markets should not be ignored either, especially from the perspective of a) reputational damage b) potential liabilities and c) enforcement notices. Why would VW “conduct such activities” just in the North American Market? Are they alone in such practices?

VW’s actions have already given rise to questions about an exit from American market. With China in the crapper and Europe at best showing a dull glimmer of hope, what other options do they have? Stay and pay the price or exit?

Perhaps a new plant and improved corporate governance is a sensible approach. The read across of how quick VW’s hands went up, “we’re coming out, please don’t shoot” (Classic text book crisis management), would certainly suggest at this point in time they intend to stay in the US market.

Separately, US authorities have to consciously consider how much investment VW has made and is likely to make within the US. With recent speculation of another plant / operations being built. VW is invested in the US with the Chattanooga Plant, Tennessee (from 2011 onwards)

Chattanooga employs a significant number of people both directly and indirectly and, depending on how business recovers, could build more (but unlikely in the near future). The view in the auto industry is that VW is a big company to weather the storm, and that it's going to make the US work even if it takes slightly longer than planned. The planning stage may just be a slight underestimate, but one cannot knock optimisation.

With the litigious nature of such high profile cases, any costs are unquantifiable at this stage. Having been digging this afternoon, the likely outcome will not only involve X billions of dollars in fines ($4B estimate here), but associated warranty costs and, unless there’s a speedy GM type deal, possible criminal charges for those executives in the know. 

As the situation has been dragging on since August 2014, it would appear VW have been less than open with the EPA investigations. Of significance is the class-action lawsuits by US Drivers whom bought into the "clean diesel." Is there mis-selling? What are the refund liabilities? Do VW have to not only compensate drivers on false promise? Will vehicles over the longer-term be fit for purpose? Can modifications be made to rectify the issues?

The market’s reaction so far suggests there is a suspicion that all manufacturers have been up to similar. Just when the DoJ and American regulatory system are nearing the end of imposing fines on the banks. America have a headwind to attempt some protectionism on the back of VW’s woes. What with the pharmaceutical price gouging and auto defeat devices, US regulatory depts. and enforcements agencies may just have another busy year ahead.

VW have so far have been very clever to avoid putting the matter in context, more so, hands up and we’re cooperating. However, if one is to read across to the settlement of GM.

1. GM had 100+ deaths and injuries.
2. Arguably the product defects/flaw are potentially larger for VW.
3. GM’s lawyers and product specialists appeared to be aware of the situation and limited their actions to protect the consumer and general public.
4. The defeat device appears to be installed to circumvent existing emissions controls. Whereas, GM appeared to be after the fact. On the face of it, VW appear to have conspired to ‘beat’ the system and arguable had an unfair advantage over their competitors.
5. Both GM and VW have denied the existence of such a flaw/fault and as such, it has wider implications for the automotive culture of avoiding/taking blame.
6. For consideration in the liability is the multiplier effect - where potentially 2 or 3 owners of the same car could have rights to a claim due to the false statements and/or the practice of utilising the defeat device. So far, estimates here (EMC) suggest it’s likely to be around 14-16.5M owners that are affected by VW’s emissions practices. The issue is, what is the likely class action uptake of this case in comparison to those of GM? 10%? 15?%
7. What of the risks associated with VW’s assets back securities? VW Bank? Lease and financing packages etc…? Woah, over to DBRS / Fitch / S&P on that one, that may need a little tweaking.

Whether VW drivers are stalwarts to a brand is another story, with the reputational damage being another potential unknown. Evidence so far suggests GM are / have recovered in terms of market share since the scandal first emerged.  Their current market share of 17.2% certainly suggests the US consumer hasn’t been too phased by the ignition switch issues.

Once upon a time, German car-makers were known for the reliability, quality and efficiency. As such the sector read across is not great, but all is not lost.  This reputation is unlikely to be irreparable - theme parks and other such operators manage it over the 16-18 month cycle (psychology of risk selection). If one reads across to the psychology behind other brands, irrespective of sector, the norm is circa 12-18 months, more recently towards longer-periods. The poignant part is to avoid complacency, something VW should avoid at all costs.

There’s no two ways in putting it, that the industry as a whole has a crisis to manage. There’s a suspicion that the lack of commentary by other manufacturers suggests that there’s an element of due diligence being conducted currently. This comes with a caveat of conjecture at the moment.

Save for an ever expanding number of vehicles involved, one can look forward to a heavily fed media investigation. The Government agencies will of course cite the seriousness of such actions, outline a hefty fine $4+B and with an unknown quantum for recall and reparation costs.

The class actions may be the sticking point, with a wide range of circa $2-$16B (the latter assuming partial-refunds). In time, VW can invariably look forward to funding some form of "best practice centre on emissions" to remove the Government burden.

One could even draw on the past as an indicator of the future, with a speedy deferred prosecution agreement for three years (a la GM) to avoid further investigation. If one is the market for a new car, the plus being that VW cars may just be a buy (not the stock), as they have to build quality to repair this nightmare shareholder scenario.

The obvious question is which marques in VW's stable are at risk? Audi, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen marques. Greater scrutiny will be placed on commercial vehicles under the MAN, Scania, Neoplan and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles marques?

In assessing the issues, there’s been a number of valuations. On the sums of the parts, discounting VW brand per se, cash etc.…With sensibility, assuming no further news, the worst case scenario based on current news of circa €87.63 (Euros) a share, with potential upside if the matter is put to bed fully, of near €115 a share.

At near €111 it’s very difficult at this stage to believe the issues are fully priced in, albeit expect those with greater risk appetites to be enticed. Perhaps those funds with telescopic calculations based on earnings in 2022 are being enticed? Can VW recover from here? Undoubtedly, but if further problems come to light, it’ll be a proverbial fire sale.

VWs exposure to China / Rest of the World is a story for another day that has not been fully discounted yet.

In other news, the JCB head count reductions and oil rig (including deep sea) count have not gone unnoticed. Kaz Minerals saga is reaching a conclusion with the market belatedly realising the all in unit costs are 20-30% below (edit) above market prices. ($2.80-$3/lb). Anyone for a rights issue? Previously a £5+B company.

Woes being felt in the UK steel industry by Bangkok's SSI and their Redcar plant with sympathies for Teesside workers. Redcar being a casualty of the Chinese steel exports.

BHP Billiton (BLT) Global Debt Investor Marketing Announcement is very well timed – considering Roy Hill is on track etc. raise it whilst you can’t! Did BLT ever update the market on the missing $1.5B capex guidance or is the situation still offline!? Expect more of the same…Copper not assisting Glencore either at circa $2.31/lb currently. 

Atb Fraser