Morning Mumble: A valium edition - a recap, from China to the oil price requirements on government expenditure - flying pigs poignantly timed for Macau's disappearing Billions...but it's ok it's only 3-4% of the Macau Junket liquidity ++ KGF being Screwfixed!

Good Morning, 

One would be wise to make sure they have coffee or Valium!? Some missives from the past couple of days. 

Not only is there a rise in Chinese inventories, retail price increases, wholesale/factory gate prices are falling - to stay competitive China have resorted to energy price manipulation. All of which are eating into the earnings of global producers – aluminium a prime example. Following in unfortunate timing with, FT: Asia trades cautiously following Chinese data.

The overhauling of the SEO’s (State Owned Enterprises) is insufficient on its own. China, with any form of sensibility will have to adjust the wastage and excesses. The implications throughout the economy are not positive, if SEO’s suddenly garner economic prudence. The agendas of the Government will be harder to be played out, including, but not limited to, employment numbers, wages but also benefits.

The indicators suggest all is not as well in China, in addition to flying pig prices - notably the pork industry isn't as leveraged. China's food inflation won’t assist the economy out of this glut either, but they can hope. Similar to Russia but not as dramatic, China is suffering from a reducing wage cost, the impact on how people service there mortgage will perhaps be another story.

Finished goods prices (wholesale) have come under pressure from lowering demand but aided mostly by reducing commodity prices that are limiting the chances of growth. If UBS and Goldman Sachs forecasts’ of a worst case $28.50 and $20 a barrel respectively, come to fruition it’s not looking great either. If one was so inclined, this belated about turn by UBS and GS, may be an indicator the market is about to improve, with drilling count and well reductions.

See: AFR's: BHP Billiton price target cut on oil forecast revision and Bloomberg: How Low Can Oil Go? Goldman Says $20 a Barrel Is a Possibility. Essentially the outlook for certain countries isn't great, nor for debt of the oilers or the credit ratings.

Bloomberg’s Brazil's Junk Status is just the start of the risk realisation in international bond markets. Where, in the race for returns, monies have been lent on the basis of being a lower risk than the realities of the situation present. What are the implications for the following debt? More so who will own Petrobras? 

Country	Oil Price to balance fiscal budgets 2015
Algeria	Needed $130/bbl, revised to $98/bbl
Angola	$100/bbl++
Brazil’s just another story entirely, Petrobras’s debt woes won’t disappear overnight!	$115/bbl estimated just to service debt. Junk!
Ecuador	$80/bbl
Iran Allegedly	$130 by consensus but more than probable at $84/bbl based on increased exports.
Iraq	$95/bbl
Kuwait	$55/bbl
Libya	$140/bbl
Nigeria	$120/bbl
Qatar	$55/bbl
Saudi Arabia	$62/bbl (*based on revisions and financing)
Rest of UAE	$70/bbl
Venezuela	$120/bbl

Bloomberg's: Best & Worse Analysis.

For those readers that are keen on Pork Ribblets, Semi-Meaty. The UK suffered a lowering in pork prices and demand during August. Spain and Portugal, despite significant increases (double digit EMC estimates 10-12%) in exports, has seen only modest 2-4% increase in prices, despite a surge in demand. 

The global pork prices, even allowing for US woes of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea Virus, or PEDv, have not seen the supply issues being cited in the Chinese press nor so in China. One can only wonder who or what is leading the media to believe there is a supply shortage of pork in China? A flying pig perhaps? 

With the current news flow including companies attempting to rationalise their balance sheets and spending, similarities are yet again being drawn towards Japan. Japan suffered a prolonged period of disinflation occurred after periods of strong growth. Ticking another box in the theory that Chinese companies' having no alternative but to invest globally (EMC: Japan August 2015) and / or pay down debt. Some appear exempt on sensible ratios of debt. With Japan printing, is it a case of sell GEM (Global Emerging Markets) and buy Japan?

Corporate entities have a rather large issue in China. The need to focus on their borrowings, part acknowledged by China's reduction in interest rates. If Chinese corporations continue without some form of prudence and debt reduction, the deflation and slowing of demand will create a real risk the number of defaults rising. It could be just the foundations and consolidation that China needs. China's premier will not be resting on his laurels with regard to a stimulus, but perhaps more prudent to take ones time.

The wholesale deflation has made it very difficult for the corporations to service debt, maintain earnings and justify the higher levels of employment. Banks, are sensibly risk assessing new applications despite the actions of the PBOC (People’s Bank of China), shrinking liquidity further. 

China is being forced to become efficient (or attempt to), this will have implications for employment levels and taxation receipts. The PBOC has realised this, with planned infrastructure and PPP/PFI spending, there are little alternatives.

It’s prudent to have a quick recap of the Chinese growth story and their economy this year. To prop the economy up, the PBOC has reduced interest rates five times (soon to be six). Injected capital directly into the banking system to attempt increase lending and part replace the capital outflows. 

China have reduced the Reserve Rate Ratios (RRR) 5 times to a now 18% and attempted to prop up the stockmarket financially, followed by policy. Better yet, China devalued their currency and tightened up on e-payments and capital outflows including commodity financing deals. Glencore would be wise to consider the latter.

Most of the actions by the Chinese government have had limited impact, China has no alternative but to acceleration spending on infrastructure projects. China has already been discreetly bringing forward infrastructure projects, examples being the development of waste management systems for Beijing.

Tax incentives are being given for investments and capital expenditure, both for individuals and corporations, on top of development grants for those wishing to become entrepreneurs. We have not forgotten the dire state of local government and their dwindling revenues and central government seizing $150B, where the confetti of debt has been issued and underwritten by central government. 

It appears Macau have caught another cold, thanks to a group with a light-fingered approach to gambling. Not only is Macau in the glut of a property depression, in part aided by Li's anti-corruption policies and clampdown on excesses, but more so, the wider economy both with property and business revenue declines. 

Not to worry, gross revenues in Macau may have dropped by 38% in June (worst for five years), but their property has so far only dropped 15%. Junket’s losing near $250M appear not to be of significance to some analysts, it’s only 3 percent to 4 percent of junket volumes.  Ironically, due to the declines it’s actually nearer 8% but what’s a few % of an entire market in decline?

One has to wonder how well the listed Macau Property (MPO) is and what of their Net Asset Valuations in light of the property situation in Macau. With some dramatic discounts being touted on high end property of 25%, but the average is 15% decline as a minimum. We'll know more in due course with a visit planned very soon by the travelling duo!

Of course, with a share buyback in full swing at MPO you'd have thought the SP would be appreciating/holding. With a NAV near 50% above the current SP, one cannot think what the buyers are waiting for!

Staying with a theme, Cloudbuy's (CBUY) NOMAD Westhouse has quit with immediate effect. Disappointedly (for the management) it won't have helped them with their half yearly report also out at the same time. 

Why did Westhouse quit, more so, if anyone was long on this stock post the EFH (Here EFH 1 and Here EFH 2 about turn) debacle covered very well elsewhere, then they need to have words with themselves. Time would not be wasted in looking at how EFH traded this stock, perhaps those whom earn monies exposing such things will be inclined? 

Kingfisher’s interim results are out, beating expectations (EMC) and also a beat on the implications of the BDO. However, the drop in profit is not to be ignored. One has to consider the sensibility of the ScrewFix expansion - 200 stores. The press/city would be wise to wake up to the discounting and margin erosions, more so ScrewFix is not just a “tradesman’s entrance.” Margins yet again under pressure.

KGF are not confident of a French performance (remaining cautious on trading in Castorama and Brico Dépôt France). In essence what the UK gave, France took away. It would be wise to monitor the industrial output of France, renamed “the indicator for Catorama and Brico Dépôt.” KGF, in hindsight for them, may be thankful in being unable to complete on Mr Bricolage.  How prudent of KGF to sell their controlling stake in China.  

To save time, we’ll say goodbye to Haik Chemical now, this company has been the eternal dog of performance. We could blame the likes of Hi-Tech Spring, whom consistent with higher inventories and lower demand have been forced to be more competitive.   

Apologies for the search function not working properly in the top left hand corner, there is nothing that can be done about this. Utilising Google's site search, may be wise. 

Atb Fraser

(Travelling today so limited). 

Morning Mumble: China's Sensible Mini-Me HK and Retailers...Glencore goes long Copper! (Perversely for everyone else.)

Good Morning,

Last week, Nikkei Hong Kong PMI® was released with the dramatic title, PMI falls to lowest level since April 2009. The last time the data was this negative was in 2002 and 2009. The indicators are not great, with a lowering in new orders enabling companies to complete pipeline work. This may be a swallow in the grand theme of things, but we shall watch for a continuance before we long lithium pharmaceuticals. 

One item from Li, is the factories now avidly marketing their wares (inventories) at rocket bottom prices. From some shoddy capital equipment to very decent drilling machines for oil, all are being marketed with discounts that are notable. Could the shale suppliers being under further pressure? 

We shall revisit this over the coming weeks, now the parade is over and they can continue the witch-hunt. As a simplistic recap, production down, services demand down, innovative development and investment down. China has forced a new low, companies can recommend a buy on their own company – A Chinese investment bank rates its own stock — thinks it's definitely a buy. 

Now who do you believe? Man Group China head says she was not investigated by authorities, but was merely meditating. One had to reread this to make sure there was no confusion between meditating and medicating! Of course Li Yifei "had been attending industry meetings and taken a 5-6 day trip to meditate." So for those that don't reappear, say those that worked at CITIC or similar, should we contact the Guinness Book of Records, not only for the longest meditating period but largest event of its kind? 

We had Markit France Retail PMI® that had very similar themes to the BDO High Street Sales Tracker that was reported Thursday. Although as a snapshot in time, predominantly based on weather, it's not necessarily all bad. With some sectors and retailers likely to be more resilient and / or benefit, but there is a theme, with some buying opportunities presenting. Perhaps when considered against household debt (excluding mortgages), there is a very simple answer for the decline in sales? Save for more holidays abroad.

With retail shoppers making decisions on holidays or retails sales, choices are now having to be made. Watch for those margins, as sales competition hots up, especially if there's discounting the autumn/winter season, more so than normal. 

Associated British Foods (ABF) pre-close trading update gives out the positives, save for FX and sugar. Why is ABF not split into two? The argument for a split is getting ever stronger, save for some improvements in sugar more recently on the back of El Niño (FT)

Earlier in the year retailers evidenced improvements in pricing. These benefits are likely to be offset by competitiveness due to weather (lack of punters) and the need for seasonal stock changes. ABF via Primark have shown they’re not insulated either despite lower prices. Concerning that with their pricing perception in Primark stores, customers want even cheaper clothes!?

BDO analysis suggests inventories up, sales under-pressure and weakness in the wider and or global economy it's not looking great. (The last sentence may apply to different regions).

Like the Hong Kong PMI data, it’s noted that key reports are trending with as "bad as, not since levels seen in 2009 etc...” The read across to Kingfisher and Merlin entertainment does not looking brilliant, over to BDO. 

The strength of the pound is proving somewhat detrimental to high street retailers’ revenues. Consumers are spending more on items abroad to take advantage of the exchange rate, whilst tourists – particularly from the Eurozone – are less willing to spend. The continuing political and macroeconomic uncertainty, coupled with the threat of an interest rate rise in mid-2016, is also weighing on consumers’ minds.

Kingfisher (KGF) may be insulated thanks to a growth in French housing purchases by speculators/investors, although spend is normally lower than those buying a ‘home’. We won’t have to wait too long, with the interims due on the 15 September 2015. One can barely contain the excitement with an update on KGF’s “One” and their 'sharp' decisions in September. 

The news is filled with Glencore. As the share initially shot up today on news of a rights issue that was absent entirely of pricing or indicative terms. Please remember, as per Ivan’s statement it has not been determined whether it will be a rights issue. It does appear to be 100% underwritten (so perhaps the market thinks it’s irrelevant), for now. This is in addition to Glencore’s African Copper - Operational Update.

The market, like in the Platinum Group Metals sector, needs a casualty and Glencore have come up with the answer. Putting two large projects under "Doctors Orders" (Care and Maintenance) until improvement works have finished. 

The suspension of production at Katanga and Mopani for 18 months up until the completion of the expansionary and upgrade projects. This includes the whole ore leach at Katanga and the new shafts and concentrator at Mopani. A suspension of operations will remove approximately 400,000 tonnes of copper cathode from the market. 

Glencore blamed the decline in copper prices on aggressive short-selling in their full year interim results webcast. Today's news is starting to make one think that Glencore did not have any idea of the amount of physical in the market place nor in fact much understanding of the current cycle. More so, the surplus is significantly higher that Glencore anticipated by the very cut of near 400K/t’s. If this was not the case, they would have identified suspending production at Katanga and Mopani in their interim results webcast, rather than belatedly. The copper price has improved a smidge of 4¢ since the interims, so what changed?

Glencore have pulled 266K/t's annualised basis from the market, (for 18 months/note for diary) As a result, if copper cannot sustain a comeback to near $2.50/lb and potentially $2.85/lb on the back of Glencore's news, then there is something substantially wrong in the global economy (and/or China).

Is China really sick? Or just slowing? The copper price will give a very good indication over the coming months. Not only immediately will the market react, but due to inventories, a slower appreciation is likely over the next 9 months. (Keep an eye on car sales). A complete gift to Freeport-McMoRan et al (VED, ANTO, KAZ), where any 10¢ appreciate per lb is worth between $300-500M to FCX.

Glencore have come out to state how bad it is, but of course for Glencore it’s not bad at all, Ivan Glasenberg, Chief Executive Officer, and Steven Kalmin, Chief Financial Officer, made the following statement:

"Notwithstanding our strong liquidity, positive operational free cashflow generation, lack of debt covenants, modest near-term maturities and the recent affirmation of our credit ratings, recent stakeholder engagement in response to market speculation around the sustainability of our leverage, highlights the desire to strengthen and protect our balance sheet amid the current market uncertainty.

The measures we have announced today do not affect our core business activities and overall franchise value and have been designed to sensibly accelerate the deleveraging of our balance sheet, maximise future cash flow generation in the current weak commodity price environment and substantially improve our financial and credit metrics, stability and strength, in the event of a prolonged weaker pricing environment.

We remain very positive on the long-term outlook for our business and this is reinforced by senior management's commitment to take up 22 per cent. Of the proposed equity issuance. Copper and zinc are both supply-challenged and an essential ingredient of future global growth. In seaborne thermal coal, a capex drought and low prices have helped rebalance the market. We are confident that thermal coal's position and availability as the lowest cost fuel source for many large economies will underpin its key role in the global energy mix for many years to come.

We have today an extensive portfolio of long-life, low-cost industrial assets, benefitting from the unique capabilities of our marketing business. We reiterate our 2015 full year marketing EBIT guidance of US$2.5 billion to US$2.6 billion and remain confident of our long-term guidance range of US$2.7 billion to US$3.7 billion."

Culling dividends, full year and interim for 2016, cutting production etc...All should have been conducted at the interim results where "Captain Kirk and Scotty" could pull the levers (EMC: Glencore 24th Aug 2015). Have another look at the Webcast from the 25 August 2015, re: Dividend etc...Then consider the news today. 

The fundraising suggests there was an over-confidence in Glencore's senior management at the interims in August. Did they really have sufficient flexibility in the accounting model (in the current market), with some prudence in light of current market conditions? Common-sense?

In the absence of this capital raising, the balance sheet cannot be "stress-tested." Glencore appears very desperate to be doing the fundraising without giving an indication of anything, price, timetable or whether the larger shareholders have approved of such an action. 

If Qatar Holdings, or Harris Associates had agreed to the fundraising, would there have been a need to underwrite? All this of course is allegedly in the interests of the longer-term shareholders, no strong-arming to avoid being diluted!?

What is noteworthy is the significant amount of "debt reduction" in the near-term. Why was this suddenly needed, market confidence? Or common-sense business practice that should have been identified at the interims? Estimated to be near $6B in a very short time frame. So who is next...? Anglo after the dip in diamonds?

Atb Fraser