Thursday, 1 October 2015

Morning Mumble / PM Bolt-On: Exclusively Volkswagen (VW) - Derivatives (one-way collateral agreements), cuts in production & bitter Lemons

Good Morning/Good Afternoon,

We shall limit today to VW. 

In a recent analyst note (Morgan Stanley 1 Oct 2015) on Volkswagen entitled ‘Balance sheet just about strong enough on our assumptions’ gained our attention.

We could raise issues on what the right numbers are for the costs that Volkswagen faces but there is perhaps an issue that analysts are missing. Our attention was drawn to an article by Nick Dunbar (Autogeddon registration may be required) (H/T Paul Murphy@FT for the link to the site) and a crucial couple of sentences (our emphasis):

When my contact told me that Volkswagen had forced its derivative dealers to accept one-way collateral agreements (so VW received collateral but didn’t have to post any in return), I saw this as prudential risk management. I didn’t imagine that banks might ever have a reason to worry about the credit risk of Volkswagen. I certainly didn’t think about VW as a source of risk to my health and that of millions of others.

Let’s remind ourselves that companies can suffer a liquidity issue even whilst they are solvent. It is essentially possible to have a ‘billion dollars of assets on your balance sheet and still not have cash at hand to pay your staff.’

So how much derivatives exposure does Volkswagen have on its balance sheet? Turning to the 2014 Annual report we note that:


NOTIONAL AMOUNT OF DERIVATIVES

REMAINING TERM
TOTAL NOTIONAL AMOUNT
TOTAL NOTIONAL AMOUNT
€ million
under one year
within one to five years
over five years
Dec. 31, 2014
Dec. 31, 2013






Notional amount of hedging instruments used in cash flow hedges:





Interest rate swaps
1,228
3,926
5,154
6,127
Currency forwards
40,822
43,421
84,243
65,366
Currency options
7,222
9,024
16,246
10,365
Currency swaps
4,461
474
4
4,938
4,883
Cross-currency swaps
315
1,300
1,615
1,293
Commodity futures contracts
360
498
858
749
Notional amount of other derivatives:





Interest rate swaps
18,991
42,981
14,216
76,188
65,568
Interest rate option contracts
61
Currency forwards
5,437
1,336
1
6,774
7,077
Other currency options
45
91
137
42
Currency swaps
8,475
259
8,734
5,226
Cross-currency swaps
4,034
4,890
11
8,935
10,022
Commodity futures contracts
895
1,099
1,994
1,384

The sum of the numbers for 2014 was a mere €215,816 million (Dec 2014). Previous year was 178, 163 million (Dec 2013)

And immediately after the table the company states:

‘In addition to the derivatives used for hedging foreign currency, interest rate and price risk, the Group held options and other derivatives on equity instruments at the reporting date with a notional amount of €1.5 billion (previous year: €1.5 billion) whose remaining maturity is under one year.’

Elsewhere in the same report (p96) the group states ‘In all refinancing arrangements, interest rate and currency risk is generally excluded by entering into derivatives contracts at the same time.’ [Earlier on the same page it states that Volkswagen Group did refinancing of €50 billion in 2014.]

Page 262 contains the following table (Excel Download ) – note that this suggests a total derivative exposure of €113,094 million (but should we include the financial liabilities line?)…. 

MATURITY ANALYSIS OF UNDISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS

REMAINING CONTRACTUAL MATURITIES

REMAINING CONTRACTUAL MATURITIES

€ million
under one year
within one to five years
over five years
2014
under one year
within one to five years
over five years
2013









*
Prior-year figures adjusted.
Put options and compensation rights granted to noncontrolling interest shareholders*
3,185
3,185
3,117
3,117
Financial liabilities
67,634
63,296
12,011
142,941
62,263
61,233
9,565
133,062
Trade payables
19,526
4
19,530
18,009
14
18,024
Other financial liabilities
4,652
1,470
94
6,216
3,455
1,047
91
4,593
Derivatives
61,623
51,265
207
113,094
54,325
46,626
1,158
102,109

156,619
116,034
12,312
284,965
141,170
108,920
10,814
260,904

Its prudent to remind readers of the ECB turning down Volkswagen paper (e.g. ECB suspends purchase of loans backed by VW assets)

So our questions for Volkswagen 'dieselgate' watchers are:
  1. What is the gross derivative exposure of VW Group (including the VW bank)? And what is the netted exposure by counterparty? (Remember that it is net exposure with each counterparty that will require collateral; not the overall net number).
  2. How much cash and other financial assets on the VW balance sheet are actually ‘one-way collateral’ provided by third parties to VW for derivative arrangements?
  3. If VW has to start posting collateral how much would that be? And what would be the impact on VW liquidity? Do they have the cash?
  4. If the ECB will not accept VW paper as collateral, or if VW paper’s rating is downgraded by the credit agencies. What will VW provide as collateral; or alternatively what ‘haircuts’ will counterparties take on VW paper?
  5. Which banks are the counterparties?
And after considering all the above does the following statement need to be reviewed: ‘Balance sheet just about strong enough’

With an element of prudence - VW have cut a shift at an engine plant line (albeit allegedly a special shift) and halted new employment within their finance division (Reuters). With the amendment to orders and sales being pushed back, its not unwise. 

With the class action suits quick to file its sensible to consider some of the complaints, such as those from HBSS Law. In the complaint for the class action (PDF). and remember it's a one sided version, so caveats apply.  It makes for an interesting read: 

Page 9, Item 24 Beginning in April 2015, Volkswagen issued VW Action Code 2306, which was a recall for CleanDiesel equipped vehicles. Volkswagen claimed that the recall was a “repair” and that it “improved” the engine management system. But many owners recorded a marked decrease in fuel efficiency and performance after the recall was completed. 

Notwithstanding the above, its prudent to consider VW vitamin intake. It would appear that VW may soon be squinting with the bitter taste of lemons (Consumer law consideration). In the fluid world of litigation and regulation, VW's outlook is looking decidedly pith like. Assuming the fuel efficiency and performance cannot be rectified what are the likely options for the consumer/VW? 

  1. Refund?
  2. Replacement vehicle?
  3. On-going payments for the differential in cost of fuel and a one-off performance related payment?
  4. Consumer rejection?
  5. Wholesale scrapping? Assuming the Clean Air Act cannot be met?
  6. Resale values - admittedly other vehicles have not been impacted by higher risks including air-bags and deaths. 

Atb Fraser

Further reading: The Bank of England gets economical with its derivatives - one-way collertalised agreements

2 comments:

  1. Additionally, will a writedown by VW bank, if large enough, require an equity injection by the parent to maintain banking solvency ratios / ratings?

    In the absence of no new equity, VW would be unable to maintain its ratings preventing access to low cost finance for car loans / leases - hindering their ability to remain attractive or competitive to the consumer.

    Further, is it possible the class action and regulatory enforcement will  trigger a writedown and need for equity before any offer of settlement?

    Atb Fraser

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In light of VW'S woes the €87.63 (Euros) a share lower range is now considered the target price. Atb Fraser

      Delete