Good Evening,
After a lot of communication regarding Sirius Minerals (SXX), to save replying to everything.
There's two cases for SXX, one that the longer-term holders whom do not feel the need to trade and can see the value over 5+ years and those short-termers with a differing view.
Without reading too much into the news today, there's no reason to change ones view. SXX was a case of sell on the approval news on the 1st July. The directorate change and market move update should be welcomed by the longer-term holders. One suspects its getting very near a price where there's a reason to buy.
With an impending Main Market listing on the London Stock Exchange, this should support SXX's value in raising near £550-700M (pending which way you turn the can). With the strength of the U$D as well, its likely any international investors may be pleased with such an investment.
In the absence of some significant corporate action or fundraising news, SXX with be mothballed, although one may have some purchases near lower prices. It would be very disappointing if this stock couldn't benefit from the potash position and being viable well below the potash current market price.
Johnson Matthew (JMAT) had Q1 trading update last Wednesday, with the woes of the industry being evidenced by the results. The EMC: JMAT Coverage has been criticised for being absent of depth, amateurish and lacking substance. Those views may be correct, but what has been covered has validated the viewpoint not to hold the stock long and/or short. (See results).
Q1
|
Q1
|
%
|
||||
2015/16
|
2014/15
|
%
|
at constant
|
|||
£ million
|
£ million
|
change
|
rates
|
|||
Sales excluding precious metals (sales)
|
||||||
Emission Control Technologies
|
478
|
444
|
+8
|
+6
|
||
Process Technologies
|
130
|
119
|
+9
|
+8
|
||
Precious Metal Products
|
85
|
101
|
-15
|
-16
|
||
Fine Chemicals
|
78
|
78
|
-
|
-4
|
||
New Businesses
|
38
|
18
|
+107
|
+126
|
||
Eliminations
|
(12)
|
(11)
|
||||
Group sales
|
797
|
749
|
+6
|
+5
|
||
Underlying operating profit1
|
103.6
|
103.6
|
-
|
-1
|
||
Underlying profit before tax1
|
94.0
|
95.0
|
-1
|
-3
|
||
1 before amortisation
of acquired intangibles, major impairment and restructuring charges, profit or
loss on disposal of businesses.
JMAT may be the
world's largest auto catalysts maker, but having rested on its laurels and not
acquired into key markets, it’s lacking diversity. In revenue terms the drop in profits is more
significant that the sector gave credit for. Not only is JMAT impacted by
multiple foreign currencies but the decline in PGM prices. This may change
sooner than people think, pending on the outcome of Lonmin (LMI) and its
backers. (Risk Event)
The question for
investing in the bull case for JMAT is whether they are likely to benefit from
the European regulation on emissions. Yes undoubtedly, but this is slowing more
so and a much more progressive company called Umicore (EBR: UMI) is winning
space.
UMI is cutting into JMAT’s
competitiveness (Margins). The cycles on Heavy Duty Diesels (HDD) have peaked
and the Chinese woes are creating more risks. With Europe’s HDD market in
contraction its going to create further pressure. Fleet ages are suggesting an
extension on ownership and renewal cycles of near 12-15%, but only a 1% up on
2009 figures. Perhaps truck recovery and parts are the way forward? GKN?
UMI have been able
to benefit from location, reduced FX woes and the Euro 6 catalyst
production both for passenger cars and heavy duty diesel applications. UMI are
expanding into JMAT’s bread and butter environment that is also declining/under
pressure. This should be a concern for any JMAT holder, a cash return is simply
an acknowledgement the business will be purely cyclical based on demand on its
undiversified offerings.
JMAT’s bull case is the cash return, dividend and
longer-term performance, but in the absence of one large acquisition, they face
being an also ran to the progressive UMI. So with cash in the bank from
Gold and Silver Refining Business for £118
million and another £256 million for the Research
Chemicals Business (Alfa Aesar) by the end of the year. JMAT will have
£374M available plus borrowings to go on the acquisition trial.
It would perhaps be
sensible to expand, as catalysts are at risk from ‘alleged’ greener eco-models
laden with batteries. The weakness in current events and risks being ascribed
to the macro environment will assist JMAT. They are in a position to leverage
and warrant a premium to their stock. The caveat being, any small scale
acquisition (unless in numbers) will question why JMAT sold its Gold and Silver
Refining and Research Chemicals businesses.
Punished for lacking
diversity in technology, metals prices and outlook but economic uncertainty.
Time for a management change? No change in position until news. Although, UMI are likely to be under-pressure as well, but one for another time.
Atb Fraser
Some PR from Umicore on their Q1's http://www.umicore.com/img/uploads/ircalendar/573/2015Q1PressreleaseEN.pdf
ReplyDeleteIts also worth noting, following the Financial Conduct Authority's removal of the requirement to issue quarterly interim management statements, Johnson Matthey has consulted with stakeholders and reviewed its current disclosures. As a result, instead of issuing a third quarter trading update in late January / early February 2016, Johnson Matthey will issue a trading update in early March 2016. The exact date of its issue will be communicated in our half year results announcement in November. At this stage, we do not intend to cease our first and third quarter trading updates but, in consultation with our stakeholders, will keep this under review.
Freeport-McMoran. Very well done. Reached an agreement with Indonesia on copper exports. Thanks Tony.
ReplyDeleteCheers Tony, long day and not willing to share too much. The simplicity is FCX have near 60%+ exposure to copper, why would you hold it until the price recovers. Cheers F
DeleteHi Fraser- Just reading your SXX piece and its clear the recent appointments are part of a general tidy up to get a Main Market listing, which is going to help them considerably in getting their financing package through on the best possible terms. The final approvals should follow over the next 2 months with no hiccups, it brings in another ex Citigroup employee into the fold, everyone need the DFS, which should be ready in a few months too (Q4 promised but could well be early Q4) the main tweaks being the production uplift to 10mtpa and 20mtpa eventually and the cornerstone investors for both construction debt and some equity/convertibles are ticking their boxes already. So SXX have a busy 6 months ahead but as they plan to sell their Poly4 at around $130/t, it will be at least half the price of potash in the marketplace and very disruptive, the cost of production will be higher than the original $40/45/t pitch but it looks doable at around $65/t, generating substantial cashflows/profits. The big potash players would have been foolish if they haven't looked at the buy and mothball option, but perhaps the cat is out of the bag now and the UK auths would block any move that would hobble the Northern Powerhouse fillip York Potash could well bring to the area.
ReplyDeleteYou are right that SXX can be played long and traded too- I did top slice after the approval as its clear most buying in then had no idea of timescales here and were likely to get bored after a few weeks. The DCF here looks great and suggests they are worth over 60p now, but the production is so far off and they have some challenges re the shaft and especially the tunnel conveyor build, so perhaps a run back up to 20p in the next month is the most likely initial path.
Re NXT- playing their old tricks again (promise low and then exceed) and still some analysts panic when the initial guidance comes in each year, it gives them work to do and they would prefer the easy route, so today they all upgrade and then go back to their white powder and hookers-- in the meantime the NXT juggernaut rolls on in a steady fashion and I better buy some more by the look of it.
Cheers. The Leggie