Wednesday 18 December 2013

Antics & Suspicions: Exillion (LSE: EXI) & No-Surprises


Another prime example where the downside had greater chance of occurring than any returns on the upside. 

Well it comes as no surprise that EXI are no longer in discussions. Furthermore, I wonder what will happen to 'all those' trades and whom will be the beneficial owners in say 6 months.The shenanigans and trades just didn't not add up. My suspicions around it being an attempt to ascertain the value more so than an offer have been in part confirmed in the announcement today. 

The Board of Exillon is pleased that the sale process that has been conducted over the past three months has helped to demonstrate the value of the Company's assets.  The Board of Exillon is committed to working constructively with its new shareholders to deliver value for all shareholders.

Yes the share price moved, but that's what happens 'on the whole' during offer periods, the market speculates on the value. Anyone holding the stock in my view likes to gamble, and if you wish to gamble further, carry on. When items did not stack up, it pays to sell and walk away! Its yet another anomaly to AIM. Very hard to determine the bottom/floor or eventual trading range but its certainly not where it has been. In August they had around $90M of cash, this should increase...but today is a godsend for the volatility traders as it attempts to find a level...Russian Oiler, AIM, Oligarchs, what more contributions does one need to create risk? 

Atb Fraser


1 comment:

  1. Fraser- I agree that the main issue here seemed to be establishing a value for EXI, which is a good growing asset in a Russian oil sector that needs production assets, hence the interest of the major players who shuffled around big stakes in EXI over the last month or so. I too suspected that when EXI called off the formal talks via GS et al, they could see that no full and final offer would be made, but I am happy with my valuation of EXI (now between £3.30 and £3.70, based in interpretation of 2P reserves and imbed value of production assets) and my average is now down to £1.31, so I will hold and let this one play out. The majors paid £3.77 and £3.43 for their stakes, so they should be supportive and I can see a further offer when the 6 months period has elapsed, this time with a level playing field.

    Cheers. The Leggie

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