Morning Mumble: BHP Billiton (BLT) Production set to increase & South 32's Misnomer

Good Morning,

There's a lot around about BHP Billiton (BLT) this morning. Although some are missing some pertinent elements including BLT's costs. If one cannot produce and sell a product without incurring freight and royalty costs, why are these not included in the cash costs? 

BLT's $16 a tonne is wrongfully considered a pain to the industry. The marginal producers will suffer, that's a given. BLT's total costs are not near $16/t! Without going into details analysis, BLT and RIO's all in cash costs are nearing $35-40/t pending on weather and energy cost movements.  

The commitment to Port Hedland of additional $240M is not to be sniffed at, this isn't included in freight or royalty costs. They have committed to the purchase of additional tugs and a new "tug harbour" to improve the reliability of the port. 

Iron ore will be under further pressure. With most commodities the gap between cost of production and sales price narrows over time. The Chinese are not speculating on Iron Ore, in fact most commodities, this has had a notable effect on commodities prices. 

Although BLT is still increasing to capacity of 290Mtpa and forecast to production of 270Mtpa for 2016. Whether the production increase improves costs (or efficiencies) any more than have already been expressed is another matter. 

Last weeks impact for Onshore US assets $2B and a net loss recorded on the demerger of South32 (Short 32) are now realised. This will be addition to the copper writedowns that appear to be exploration related are not to be sniffed at.

As Rio is slowly being recognised as ex-growth, it may be premature but all the same, BLT is looking like a cash model rather than a growth company. 

The marketing update is worth consideration as there's a glaring significant theme, please not all comparative years and half years. 

Average realised prices(6)	FY14	H1 FY15	H2 FY15	FY15	FY15 vs  FY14	H2 FY15 vs  H2 FY14	H2 FY15 vs H1 FY15
Oil (crude & condensate) (US$/bbl)	102	85	52	68	(33%)	(49%)	(39%)
Natural gas (US$/Mscf)	4.35	4.21	3.29	3.77	(13%)	(33%)	(22%)
US natural gas (US$/Mscf)	4.10	3.89	2.59	3.27	(20%)	(46%)	(33%)
LNG (US$/Mscf)	14.67	13.76	9.40	11.65	(21%)	(36%)	(32%)
Copper (US$/lb)(7)	3.22	2.98	2.61	2.78	(14%)	(16%)	(12%)
Iron ore (US$/wmt, FOB)	103	70	53	61	(41%)	(45%)	(24%)
Hard coking coal (US$/t)	131	110	99	105	(20%)	(18%)	(10%)
Weak coking coal (US$/t)	111	92	85	88	(21%)	(18%)	(8%)
Thermal coal (US$/t)(8)	74	61	56	58	(22%)	(21%)	(8%)
Nickel metal (US$/t)	15,273	16,905	13,688	15,301	0%	(18%)	(19%)

South32 (S32/Short32) quarterly results are today as well, with little mention as BLT have overshadowed their results. This could be a cunning format for hiding crap. 

South 32 were notified by BHP Billiton that non-cash, pre-tax impairments of South32 assets totalling US$1.9 billion were recognised effective 6 May 2015. Largely offsets prior fair value uplift of US$2.1 billion recognised for Australia Manganese and South Africa Manganese. 

A couple of issues here, firstly are S32 not recognising BLT's $2.1B impairment on S32, but more so, if South32 are limiting manganese production because the prices are so dire, then the uplift in valuation should be reversed even more so than the impairment. Perhaps S32 accounts department need to remove their socks before attempting the full year accounts. We'll have to wait until the interims to find the other $200M. 

With all miners rushing to capacity rather than cash efficiency and security of supply, expect significant pressure of caps on commodities. In the absence of some significant casualties, the market is set for lower prices for longer. Oh and the Chinese stimulus...being a risk. 

Something of significance that isn't being widely reported yet, but has started to be unwound after the Government investigation. Speculators would be wise to consider is the unwinding of ETF's back by physical metals in China (Fanya Metal Exchange). This is significant in the REE/REM (Rare Earth Elements/Rare Earth Metals) space, but one should consider 'certain' copper trading houses where some of the investors have had a liquidity issue. 

With an increase in trade disputes on commodities exchanges, at what point does the Chinese Government get involved in these issues. More so with fraudulent trading companies springing up, what are the risks to the market with alleged guaranteed returns on commodities of 50% in a day. 

China had Qingdao issues with Copper financing (ghost financing), that have not only seen a spike in LME / Global warehouse supplies, but more so a reduction in financing for metal trades. Pacorini Metals Asia Pte spike in inventory, across the spectrum of metals is not uncommon globally.

Atb Fraser

Evening Bolt on: International Mining & Infrastructure Corporation plc (AIM: IMIC) & Tesco (the final update) a double dose of!

International Mining & Infrastructure Corporation plc (IMIC) loan conversion shows the faith in the company, a mere 30% discount to the SP. One hopes you've sense my irony with the mere...the 1 year chart must surely look like the cellar steps! Next stop 10 pence? 

It would be wise to think how the terms are fair and reasonable as Strand Hanson Limited, the Company's Nominated Adviser (NOMAD), consider that the terms of this transaction are fair and reasonable insofar as the shareholders of IMIC are concerned. Its not something I shall be complaining about having rated this as a sell since they acquired Afferro Mining Inc.

Tesco: Buy

One thing that Dave Lewis has just been talking about is the category reset. Basically done one category so far (other than Christmas), which is Home Care. Sounds like they have reduced SKU's by 31% and seen better volumes and lower prices. He then gave the example of toilet paper, where the SKU's were down 44%, but pricing to consumers were down 11%, so volumes well up. Now the manufacturers will have made far more money out of that (or the big players that won) as they have got rid of hi/low pricing, high/low stock levels and so production can be smooth, consistent and ultimately profitable. This will happen in more categories, so big brands should win. Sensible way to go forward, especially when you have c.29% of the market (they have the scale to deliver it).

Shares have had a good run due to no rights issue, many investors were hoping to get some cheap shares on a rights. We certainly can't rule out a rights at some time, but we suspect Tesco will do it from a position of strength, when they have sorted a good chunk of the balance sheet issues out (maybe this time next year). We expect the shares to follow through a little more in the short term, but we must remember that we haven't seen much regarding the profits yet. At some point in February the Group will need to lay out their profits forecasts, all we know is that they will be no more than £1.4bn, we don't know how much less of this number it will be. Write-offs will come through, but underlying profits will need to show the level of investment that Tesco has done to achieve the improving sales performance, we would expect the new Tesco management to throw in as much costs as possible in these historic numbers. Consequently we could see the shares see a small sell-off over the next few days, but fundamentally we still like the medium term story here. Getting the performance back to what it should be will give huge upside in the shares over the next 18 months. We remain a buyer.

Tesco: Buy

We were impressed with the presentation that Tesco has just delivered, not least because it shows a complete change in the culture of how the management are looking at the business. Moving the Head Offices away from their traditional home also signals that the new management team want to be involved far more in the underlying business than they have in the past few years. Here are some of the positives and negatives that we believe came through.

Positives:

One thing that Dave Lewis has just been talking about is the category reset. Basically done one category so far (other than Christmas), which is Home Care. Sounds like they have reduced SKU’s by 31% and seen better volumes and lower prices. He then gave the example of toilet paper, where the SKU’s were down 44%, but pricing to consumers were down 11%, so volumes well up. Now the manufacturers will have made far more money out of that (or the big players that won) as they have got rid of hi/low pricing, high/low stock levels and so production can be smooth, consistent and ultimately profitable. This will happen in more categories, so big brands should win. Sensible way to go forward, especially when you have c.29% of the market and the scale to deliver the potential positives that should come through.

The management has finally realised that you need to get sales growth to deliver shareholder benefits. We were encouraged by how Dave Lewis continually stressed how if they realise internal funds from either cost savings or better execution on the sales line then this would be invested back into price to grow the sales line. Margins therefore will be subdued for the next few years, but if you start gaining significant market share as you use your already strong position to get great prices on brands and own-label, then as time moves on the competition will struggle to invest to keep up. Ultimately this was a simple expression of offering the consumer what they want when they want it, this could make life much tougher for Discounters as they do offer value, but the range is very limited and so maybe they don’t offer consumers always what they want.

The most important comment that was made by Dave Lewis was when explaining the £1.4bn forecast which was put into the market on Dec 9^th. Here he made it clear that this would be the number when you take into account what had been expensed by that date. It was clear that they have therefore funded some Christmas and New Year investments via internally generated funds. The Company wants this to become the key driver in the business, if it does then they will be gaining share and hurting the competition, then many of the other worries regarding cash flow and debt will dissipate pretty quickly.

Finally, regarding debt and the worries over this issue for Tesco, they reminded analysts that they had issued £5bn of debt just after the new CFO arrived in October, so there is no immediate pressure on the balance sheet. We suspect this is why the shares have risen so much on today’s news, but we are still encouraged by all of the other fundamental changes that the  new team has started to make.

Negatives:

Debt is still high, though there is no immediate issue to repay this debt the short term cash outflow (c.£2.3bn) doesn’t make good reading. With lease commitments high, a Pension deficit and underlying debt, they do need to make sure that the underlying business is being run properly so that they can fund the business from that cash flow. Asset sales though can now be done at a time when it suits Tesco rather than the markets.

No final dividend isn’t great either. Here the comments seem to suggest that they will think about paying a dividend once they have the right investment grade, so that doesn’t look great for the short to medium term as it will clearly take time to repair the balance sheet.

We guess there will be some questions as to whether seeing no margin growth and just focussing on what is good for consumers is good for shareholders. Undoubtedly yes. If consumers start to come back to Tesco then cash flow should turn positive quickly, this will allow Tesco to sell assets at better levels, and maybe even have a rights issue on their terms rather than just having one as a necessity to reduce debt. Getting back into this virtuous circle is what investors want and should allow the shares to recover. Tesco has started turning this tanker round. We remain a buyer.

With limited time to highlight items above, thanks to Duncan for some more in depth thoughts.Even

Rare earths and China’s self-correcting folly might be a tad premature with export restriction in the form of permitting rather than quotas I hope to return to this REM, REE and Rare Earths item. 

Tomorrow due to meetings and a few items outstanding it'll be touch and go but it would be rude not to consider the pricing out to 2016 giving an idea what the market thinks for 62% FE. 

Atb Fraser