If parties think back to the trade a few weeks back of near $3B in NY on gold, you'll note the pricing since with a consistent support and little arbitrage ability between the US & Asia. The likely tapering of QE within 3 months is providing some security to the gold bugs, with the continued pressures in the economy, one would be wise to consider greater exposure to gold. With a quick estimate that I now hold 1.5% of portfolio in gol,d time will tell if this is a shrewd move. The motivation was the safety investors need and demand for gold starting to increase. China's issues will promote the return to gold rather than the "silly" yields previously tempting investors including Coal Bonds etc...just have a look at the global industry of coal including the debt of Chinese coal companies.
Speaking of which, Columbian coalworkers are looking at another strike. Mechanics at Colombia coal mines strike, could hit output is a ruse as most workers cannot afford a protracted strike due to the dire pay they already receive. People would be wise not to get excited about the coal price escalating with the over supply and various other issues including the pressure on pension companies not to hold coal stocks.
These Eco-warriors need to get a life, when an eco-warrior comes to me and informs me that they've not got a mobile phone and not got a flat screen TV etc...because of the massive ecological issues that the supply of metals/materials causes just in making their "favourite" items I'll perhaps listen. Then again, the benefits warrior's I observed in West-Sussex recently, whereby they've "cleverly" justified not working to protect the planet. Perhaps working and paying taxes would have more benefit to the world/country?
With gold, save for a few companies that should be rated, I was thinking about Aureus Mining and today they had further confirmation of good news/good asset. However, I cannot motivate myself to buy, even with their recent fundraising at a premium to the current SP. The market is penalising companies because so many lost money previously. Today's AUE announcement on the Ndablama drilling is positive, ticking all the boxes but...what does the market do? Rewards the company with?! I'll perhaps get excited post the NI 43-101 Resource Estimate in Q4 14. Until then, I'll continue to monitor (with interest of a long).
Today's news on Premier Oil (PMO) is exactly what the company / holders needed to stop the rot in the SP. Production well ahead, expect some revisions even on the sell side. PMO is a long-termers dream, pending time I will review in more depth once I've spoken with Indian Jones whom is allegedly work on something of interest. Surely not LGO?
There was some excitement in-light of the Shaft (SHFT) update today, its fair to say if one is holding this stock they can describe their investment by the addition of "ed" to the end of the company's EPIC. This company's making or position is partially a result of being focused on certain areas/countries and the dire state of mining margins. I will save commenting on the issues regarding receivables and how to improve this post any draconian financing plan that doesn't look likely to leave much for many current holders. Suffice to say, save for some pillock in May 2012 sending me a disgusting email about what the "hell do I know about the industry" after my comments on ML, I still rate the company as a sell to ZERO.
More later perhaps, including Cairn whom a friend has been working on the reasoning for the positive moves. Apologies for the lack of comms D, been busy Holidaying but keep them coming I'll get round to it in due course.
Food for thought for people is Petroneft (+), Mwana (+), Minco (-) with a PEA out today on Woodstock Manganese Project which assumes an IRR which isn't "too shabby" until those better informed realise it's how much above the current prices for the last 2+ years at an average of albeit the DJ European Minor Metals shows prices nearer $1/lb for China delivery which is still below the PEA assumptions by 15% as a minimum as its FOB pricing. With such a imbalance in the realities would people be an investor save for some better news on other projects such as Buchans and North Pennine.
Atb Fraser
Not great news for Cairn this morning.
ReplyDeletehttp://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/10/india-budget-highlights-idINKBN0FF0FO20140710
2014 Budget news:
TAXATION
* Jaitley vows to maintain a stable tax environment but stops short of scrapping rules on retrospective tax
* All pending cases of retrospective tax for indirect transfers to be examined by committee before action is taken
* Government will not ordinarily bring any change retrospectively that creates a new liability, Jaitley says
Noting that certain research reckons 160p is bottom pending zero exploration success and discounting the entire Cairn India stake. There's a lot of upside on the right news I expect.
ATB
D
Fraser- been busy this am but back now. I noticed the SHFT RNS of course and apart from some asset sales (not sure how much you get for second hand mining kit, possibly not enough to cover the transport costs??) I can see anyone in their right mind funding them whilst the Eurochem case is still o/s, as this could wipe them out in due course if they get the thumbs down. I assume a pre case settlement was discussed and rejected by one side or the other. So the major holder adds enough at say 2 or 3p via a placing to cover the pre decision period?? If SHFT survive the case, I will look again but in the meantime they cant be valued.
ReplyDeleteRe MIO- yes, that RNS was accidently released yesterday, which caused a share spike and suspension. I also found that release yesterday but didn't buy as the assumption weren't in line with expectations and even then the IRR was only 17% or so. Good luck to all holders.
Re PMO- I don't hold but I too was v impressed by the RNS today and they may be promoted to my Buy portfolio when I have finalised research. I guess the Sea Lion tid bit will have kept the Falkies happy too.
Cheers. The Leggie
Fraser- MET- some pre suspension games, I just tried to add as some seem to have sold at 11p this am (maybe they cant hold delisted stuff but I would have thought they would have sold weeks ago rather than 3 working days pre the 15/7/14 cancellation date) Cash held is circa 26.7p so why else would one sell at 11p??. The brokers weren't prepared to sell to me at less than 25p and this is too close to their current cash value so I declined. They have news out in the next few days (promised pre 15/7) re the proposed cash return etc and maybe even an update re litigation (albeit 2015 is the trial date) so no more dealing in MET for me at this late stage. I could have offered them an instant 50% profit on their 11p shares, but "no deal" said the nasty banker.....
ReplyDeleteRe BKSA- expecting news shortly re their final asset sale, the next cash return and the shell options. Some value there too but the brokers aren't encouraging trading opportunities in their shares either.
Cheers. The Leggie
Fraser- Ive been followed the Horse Hill story over the last few months and Mr Lenigas has stakes via most of his companies- the drill cost is reasonable and the CoS seems to offer some value to the participants as there could be 87mln barrels of oil plus a gas target too a bit lower down. I hold Igas and they are neighbours and have half their prod assets just a few miles away. So today Alba and RGM take 5% direct stakes in Horse Hill Dev (which has 65% of the drill together with NASDAQ listed Magellan Pet). RGM also has 15% of Alba, which adds to their stake, both paying £300k for their cut. I have also been following RGM via their DNi tech and some other assets, with Andrew Bell doing his usual Rodney Trotter wheeling and dealing re their assets:-)) Alba has flown but I have decided to play via a small stake in RGM at 0.29p, which seems the right move for me. Nice play by RGM, the news will be in 2 months and RGM seem to be fairly well in hand re cash so I hope they don't need to go down the SEDA route again. Off to TB now for an exciting day, hopefully, albeit the pitch seems as dead as some Ive played beach cricket on :-))
ReplyDeleteCheers and have a great weekend. The Leggie