Thursday, 31 October 2013

Directors Buys & Rampers United (No not a football story)


Its a truly wonderful day, for those that read Markets Live, the horse I mentioned yesterday came in today 2:20 at Lingfield! Then I return from lunch to find a message from Ian about 29 comments by one person about the director buy & as such spam, but it is indeed true.


For the 'unnamed' party, this is not a Bulletin Board and comments are moderated in so much as approval is required before they're published and ramp-tastic can stay with the BB's. So thanks for wasting your own time, but I am guessing the muppets have 'caught' on to the potential value in the stock. 


Obviously its pleasing to see the FD Andrew Morris, hoover up 337,700 ordinary shares of two pence each in the Company at 13.25p per share, which is significantly above my average, but more importantly, I suspect he's relieved he managed to get a buy in pre-news.

Shall be an interesting time, and perhaps exciting if information needs disseminating from an RNS.  

Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Director's Dealings in shares 29th October 2013 - For Fear of Pointing out the Obvious


Rather obvious why the purchase occurred and with such a narrow window to complete the purchase...

Ian has gone all technological and granted me rights to this rather than email each other back and forth etc.

My commentary will be clearly marked as Views on International Arbitration Stocks by Fraser..


Saturday, 26 October 2013

Rurelec: Alleged settlement & "countdown".

There's been a number of people speculating the "countdown" to the settlement announcement has begun. Its reasonable to say with Bolivia prepping its 'people' via various newspapers that "they have to pay up"...that its not far off as per what was left as a message here: Five companies ask the state $ 1,835 MM for expropriations (Oldish article from 23rd October 2013)

The most comical of which is Evo Moralez's assertions early last month. Yes Moralez actually asserted that a business part owned by the Spanish Agency for Air Navigation (AENA) for the nationalization of its subsidiary in Bolivia, Bolivian Airport Services SA (SABSA), and that instead of paying for nationalising, the owners should instead pay the Bolivia! You can read it here: Evo says that there is nothing to negotiate with Abertis

Ok, its acknowledged that SABSA had received subsidies to develop the airports, but likewise they had taken on the financial risk and developed assets that Moralez is strangely remiss of his acceptance that Bolivia can't do anything major. Its quite clear that Moralez' actions suggest he wrongfully entices companies "with the promise" of protection to then only nationalise them once they've achieved the objectives because Bolivia are incapable of it under his management. I base this on the premise that if Bolivia were capable of developing these assets, including those owned by Rurelec etc...they would not need to 'encourage' investment in their country to later nationalise them. Or am I missing something there....

Bolivia, ironically are only damaging themselves with their conduct, albeit, with the legal 'expertise' being developed its likely Bolivia will now have to pay more and more in terms of 'fair value compensation' than they have previously. If correct in this view, Rurelec's award is likely to be the upper levels of what has been validate/evidenced during the process.

Bolivia will 'no doubt protest' over the level of the award, afterall, it's not because these businesses were so purposeful they were essential to the "nationalisation plan." One wonders why Bolivia has to nationalise anything if a) it's worthless b) never likely to make a profit and c) on the basis of a+b never likely to make a return why nationalise them? Perhaps there's a good case for Bolivia actually 'realising' they should pay fair value rather than this pathetic assertion the assets are worthless.

Lets wait and see, however I don't envisage news in October with the clock ticking, willing to be wrong!

Thursday, 17 October 2013

Indonesia frets over International Arbitration with mining company.


Thanks Ian & Matty, the Indonesian contingent as they shall be known albeit Ian's heading to Morocco where I am setting off for tomorrow! It's rumoured that Indonesia has also considered the possibility of 'early settlement do avoid egg on face and possibly further damaging their miner sector.' More interestingly, there's Indonesia's 'other similar case' that went to Arbitration & Conclusion in 2000.

Publication Date : 29-06-2012

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is telling his ministers to prepare for the worst after the government recently entered into arbitration with an international mining company.

During a Cabinet meeting yesterday, Yudhoyono told relevant ministers to take needed steps to prevent such arbitrations in the future, as the case had affected him personally as the head of state.

Yudhoyono was referring to an arbitration filed by London-listed Churchill Mining Plc. that was registered with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (Icsid) in Washington, DC, on June 22.

"Please note that this case began at the regency level. But when it’s brought to arbitration, the President is the one who becomes the first defendant," the President said.

"Imagine if such cases happened in hundreds of regencies in the country, and the President was named the defendant," Yudhoyono said.

Churchill turned to arbitration after the Supreme Court rejected its appeal of a decision favouring East Kutai regency that was reached by the Samarinda Administrative Court in East Kalimantan.

The mining giant sought US$2 billion in compensation from the government for granting another firm the right to operate in Churchill’s concession.

"Don’t let us be on the losing or the wrong side, because the implications will be very large," Yudhoyono said.

"I do not want those multinational companies to do anything they desire with their international back-up and put pressure on developing countries such as Indonesia," he said.

"As long as we are sure that we are on the right path, the East Kutai regent [Isran Noor] must uphold the truth, justice and our pride. That’s the principle."

Yudhoyono assembled his Cabinet members for a one-hour meeting specifically to discuss the arbitration.

Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa declined to discuss the results of the meeting. "Things are still underway. Let’s not talk too much about something that is still in process."

According to the Icsid’s website, the Indonesian government is represented by the Attorney General Basrief Arief.

In a statement released on Churchill’s website, chairman David Quinlivan said the Icsid had confirmed that it had jurisdiction to handle the dispute under the Bilateral Investment Treaty between the United Kingdom and Indonesia.

"The board of Churchill is pleased that the Icsid has registered the request for the arbitration, and that the arbitrary proceedings have been formally initiated. Churchill will be seeking the full relief owed to it under the provisions of the bilateral treaty and under international law," Quinlivan said.

The case began in 2008 when Churchill started coal exploration in Kalimantan by acquiring a 75 per cent stake in a concession held by local firm Ridlatama Group.

However, the East Kutai regency administration later declared the mining concessions owned by Ridlatama invalid after it revoked the firm's mining permit.

The Churchill case is not the only dispute involving the government in international arbitration. The Icsid is considering another case filed by British national Rafat Ali Rivzi, a former shareholder of Bank Century, now Bank Mutiara.

Rivzi reportedly is seeking compensation for his losses stemming from the government’s 2008 decision to spend 6.76 trillion rupiah ($716.5 million) to bail out the ailing bank.

Rivzi was sentenced to 15 years’ imprisonment in absentia by an Indonesian court last year for his role risking the bank.

The government has taken international arbitration issues seriously after a case in 2000, when state oil and gas company PT Pertamina was ordered by the International Arbitration Institute in Switzerland to pay around $300 million sis in 1997. Karaha Bodas was controlled by US-based Florida Power Energy LLC and Caithness Energy LLC.
to power company Karaha Bodas Company after the government annulled the contract due to the Asian financial cri